Spatiotemporal Deep Learning Network for High-Latitude Ionospheric Phase Scintillation Forecasting

Yunxiang Liu; Zhe Yang; Y. Jade Morton,; Ruoyu Li

doi:10.33012/navi.615

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FIGURE 1
Illustration of the machine-learning-based forecasting procedure
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FIGURE 2
Illustration of the target station (blue) and surrounding auxiliary stations (yellow)
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FIGURE 3
Block diagram of the STDL network
The target and surrounding GNSS stations are represented by blue and yellow dots, respectively.
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FIGURE 4
Performance comparison of ROC curves
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FIGURE 5
Performance comparison of precision–detection rate curves
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FIGURE 6
Performance comparison of ROC curves between STDL with external features (STDL-w/Ext) and without external features (STDL-noExt)
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FIGURE 7
Performance comparison of precision–detection rate curves between STDL with external features (STDL-w/Ext) and without external features (STDL-noExt)

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TABLE 1

List of Features in Local GNSS Measurements From Wu & Liu (2021)

Feature	Description
Scintillation label	Whether scintillation occurred (binary)
Mean S₄	Average value of S₄ indices over all satellites in view
Mean σ_ϕ	Average value of σ_ϕ indices over all satellites in view
Mean SNR	Average value of the SNR over all satellites in view

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TABLE 2

List of External Features (Wu & Liu, 2021)

Observation Category	Feature	Description
Space-based	Bx (GSE)	Solar wind interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) x component in geocentric solar ecliptic (GSE) system (J. H. King & Papitashvili, 2005)
	By (GSE)	Solar wind IMF y component in GSE system (J. H. King & Papitashvili, 2005)
	Bz (GSE)	Solar wind IMF z component in GSE system (J. H. King & Papitashvili, 2005)
	By (GSM)	Solar wind IMF y component in geocentric solar magnetospheric (GSM) system (J. H. King & Papitashvili, 2005)
	Bz (GSM)	Solar wind IMF z component in GSM system (J. H. King & Papitashvili, 2005)
	Magnetic field magnitude	Magnitude of solar wind IMF (J. H. King & Papitashvili, 2005)
	Vx velocity (GSE)	Solar wind flow velocity x component in GSE system (J. H. King & Papitashvili, 2005)
	Vy velocity (GSE)	Solar wind flow velocity y component in GSE system (J. H. King & Papitashvili, 2005)
	Vz velocity (GSE)	Solar wind flow velocity z component in GSE system (J. H. King & Papitashvili, 2005)
	Flow speed	Solar wind flow speed (J. H. King & Papitashvili, 2005)
	Proton density	Plasma proton density (J. H. King & Papitashvili, 2005)
	Temperature	Plasma temperature (J. H. King & Papitashvili, 2005)
	Flow pressure	Solar wind flow pressure (J. H. King & Papitashvili, 2005)
	Electric field	Electric field (Papitashvili, n.d.)
	Plasma beta	Beta value of a plasma (Burke, n.d.; J. H. King & Papitashvili, 2005)
	Alfven speed	Speed of Alfven wave (J. H. King & Papitashvili, 2005)
	Lyman alpha	Solar irradiance measurements of the bright H I 121.5-nm emission (Machol et al., 2019)
Ground-based	AE index	Aurora-electrojet index (Mandea & Korte, 2010)
	AL index	AL index (Mandea & Korte, 2010)
	AU index	AU index (Mandea & Korte, 2010)
	SYM index	Symmetric index (Mandea & Korte, 2010)
	ASY index	Asymmetric index (Mandea & Korte, 2010)
	PC(N) index	Polar cap index (Mandea & Korte, 2010)
	CCP	Cross cap potential (Greenwald et al., 1995)
	Kp index	Kp index (Mandea & Korte, 2010)
	Sunspot number	Sunspot number (Mandea & Korte, 2010)
	Dst index	Disturbance storm time index (Mandea & Korte, 2010)
	Ap index	Ap index (Mandea & Korte, 2010)
	F_10.7	10.7-cm-wavelength solar flux (McGranaghan et al., 2018; Tapping, 2013)

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TABLE 3

List of Features From Surrounding GNSS Stations (Wu & Liu, 2021)

Feature	Description
Mean ROTI	Average value of ROTI over all satellites in view
Median ROTI	Median value of ROTI over all satellites in view
Mean ROT	Average value of ROT over all satellites in view
Median ROT	Median value of ROT over all satellites in view