TABLE 4

A Quantitative Comparison Between ARMAV and GMWM

	1 hour		3 hours		5 hours
Method	% below	RMSE log	% below	RMSE log	% below	RMSE log
ARMAV weighted	74.34 %	0.09	82.38 %	0.09	83.88 %	0.08
Constrained ARMAV	15.02 %	0.35	17.66 %	0.29	18.91 %	0.28
C-ARMAV w/ χ²	0.39 %	0.39	0.51 %	0.52	0.42 %	0.44
GMWM weighted	75.98 %	0.10	83.14 %	0.10	84.37 %	0.09
Constrained GMWM	16.34 %	0.17	16.78 %	0.11	17.01 %	0.13
C-GMWM w/ χ²	0.58 %	0.28	0.38 %	0.27	0.43 %	0.19